美非农一鸣惊人马克隆暗度陈仓

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上周大部分时间,风险资产围绕着前一周的两大主题。贸易谈判揭晓曙光,美联储很快降息,美国S& P500再创新高,美国两年期政府债券利率走出这一周期,而德国十年期间看到较低的负利率。然而,周五的美国非农就业数据就像一场雷雨,改变了市场的运作思路,改变了资金的重点。 6月份,美国就业人数增加了224,000,远超分析师预测的160K。债券市场经历了自今年1月以来的最大抛售。两年期政府债券利率上涨10.8点至1.87%,并在十年内上涨8.6点至2.04%。在数据发布之前,利率期货价格显示美联储利率下调两个百分点50个点的可能性为25%。数据公布后,概率降至1.5%。美国就业数据甚至影响了许多其他国家的金融价格,德国10年期利率也在周五反弹了3.4点。就业数据的华丽首次亮相引发了美元汇率的强烈逆转。美元兑欧元汇率为1.1226,美元指数冲至97.17。黄金价格大幅下挫。尽管美国和伊拉克在波斯湾的傲慢,但本周布伦特原油期货的价格有限。

The US non-farm payrolls data for June is a trending market material. Non-agricultural employment increased by 224K, and private employment increased by 191K, both significantly better than market expectations; hourly wages rose by 0.2%, compared with 3.1%, which was in line with market expectations. This figure shows that at the end of the economic expansion cycle, the job market is still strong, and consumption accounts for about 70% of the US economy. Therefore, although the US economy will experience a decline in growth, the overall situation is not too bad, and the possibility of slipping into recession in the short term Not big. US second-quarter GDP growth is expected to be around 1.3%, a sharp decline from the first quarter, but this is a precursor to a return to normal, not a cliff-like decline. The glory of the labor market and the handshake of trade talks are changing the risk matrix of the US monetary authorities in the eyes of the authors. Decision makers have more reasons to calmly observe and not rush to take shots. If there is no sudden bad news, the Fed will cut interest rates by a maximum of two times in the next six months. Once the opportunity is greater, it will enter the wait-and-see period and wait for the new trend of data next year.

The two recent personnel meetings in the EU made it obvious that Merkel was old and its influence in Europe was not as good as before. In the June meeting, Germany’s Weber was not recognized by the other 27 countries and could not be the EU president. In July, she was prepared, but she was rebelled by the EPP, which was the ally of the lord. In the front of the summit, the fire broke out. The two-day summit of the Chamber of Secrets did not produce European leaders. Finally, the French President Marcus sneaked in and led the final stage of the highest position in Europe. The German von Delane was nominated as the chairman of the European Commission, the Belgian Michelle was nominated as the president of the European Conference, and the Spanish Borrell was appointed as the Foreign High Commissioner. Micron’s high-profile claim that this is a win-win situation for the French-German chariot and a win-win situation for European unity. In fact, Michelle is a close ally of Maglon. More importantly, the Frenchman Lagarde was nominated as the ECB president by the dark-selling place. She will also “whatever it is in safeguarding European unity interests, monetary easing, and euro stability. Take" according to Magin's intentions. The German hawks were killed, and Draghi could be retired in October.

xx本周的市场焦点:1)鲍威尔在国会的半年度听证会上,预计他将更明确暗示7月降息,但将更坚决地拒绝当前市场对明年年底四次降息的预测,货币当局需要重新引导市场预期; 2)美国6月CPI,预计连续四个月失望后,核心CPI应反弹,接近政策目标的2%; 3)中国社会融资总量数据公布,预计财务数据有明显反弹。

本周的笔记解释了作者对经济,政策和市场的理解和理解。这不是投资建议或说服力。